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4 comments:
out with the old, in with the new...
Sure do like the way you point to that link. The expert in the articles, Mark Silver, says this won't make the "tipping point." Without your pithy my skepticism about Silver's judgment would be more muted.
My friend Nathan in Uganda wants to pursue his studies and is very interested in IT. So he's been sending me links to various curricula. Something I've pointed out is how tied most offerings in Africa are to Microsoft products in stark contrast to computer education outside Africa.
It's something of a moot point because coming up with the money for Nathan to continue studies is a big if. But I've been suggesting that he should become as informed as he can about open source and Web-based applications.
Microsoft's big fence strategy reminds me of the Mexican border fence idea. Early experiments have included expensive cameras not protected from the elements, that and more screams boondoggle. Microsoft's strategy just may tip them off the cliff.
Kaunda, agree. It's amazing that Africa would be so MS based. Same here in Brazil
... except ...
of course, everyone's buying pirate copies down the Paraguay market for 10 Reais a DVD.
I think the most likely outcome of this is that Vista gets cracked and it's business as usual for the pirates and their hundreds of millions of customers around the world.
The next most likely thing is that Microsoft notice that they're losing market share in most of the world, so they tone down any punishment they inflict on users of pirate copies. Effectively turning windows into "nagware", which just complains a lot but doesn't actually stop you doing anything.
After that, entering the realms of the improbable, millions of people really *can't* use Windows, and so switch to Linux.
The very *least* likely thing : millions of users of pirate software in Africa and South America and Asia somehow manage to scrape the money together and buy legal copies. This won't happen. Not even at massive discounts. There's a minimum cost to administrating the actual licensing and selling of software. MS can't actually lose money on every copy sold.
But perhaps this is all looking at things the wrong way. Maybe this isn't about piracy at all. What's really going on is that MS are further developing and refining their rental model for their software. The same technologies that allow you to pay for and unlock your pirate copy of Windows online are basically going to allow companies in the US to rent software from MS by the year.
Phil, you're a radical thinker. I'm always so impressed how you bring up fundamental knowledge from diverse areas of study. There's a radio game show here where people answer questions and one of the categories of questions is "Things you would have learned in school had you been paying attention." Alas, my attention always wandered.
"What's really going on is that MS are further developing and refining their rental model for their software."
You helpfully bold "rental" so it stood out and so alerted me to that you're pointing to something fundamental. I went back to read your August 24 piece along with some of the links.
I find your prediction of a Software as a Service model replacing an enterprise model convincing. So are your likely to least likely scenarios for a suicidal Vista. MS is going to "nag and kill" not just for the operating system software.
I suspect MS will vigorously respond to cracking. How successful MS will be I'm not sure. It seems already I'm sure the answer to that will have great bearing on what their SaaS model eventually looks like.
I think that an MS rental model strategy in the developing world creates trouble for them.
MS software is very expensive. A good part of the reason they can charge so much is their near monopoly position. It seems more difficult to impose monopoly pricing power in a rental model. The Law of Rent holds that rent is equal to the economic advantage obtained in the most productive use relative to using marginal real estate for the same purposes. Customers are going to think hard before paying MS exorbitant fees. They'll be asking whether or not the economic advantage of the new software are sufficient to justify purchases over their existing MS software or open source. As you've pointed out, someplace, one of Apple's selling points maybe to keep XP applications running a bit longer than usual. Vista requires more robust hardware, for this reason and others the rate of adoption of Vista over XP I predict will be slower than might be otherwise anticipated.
"After that, entering the realms of the improbable, millions of people really *can't* use Windows, and so switch to Linux."
Okay so you know I don't know computer stuff;-) Clearly I may be entering "the realms of the improbable" with my prediction that open source will become more used in the developing world. It seems to me that MS will do quite well with a rental model in the West, but many people in the developing world will not be able to pay the rent; at least the advantage of using MS products over open source and online tools will fade.
Cultural issues are an impediment. Ethan Zuckerman (I've lost the link) talking about Geek Corps recommending Linux for servers but not on regular computers pointed out: "Almost every culture in the world is more polite than global geek culture. " It made me laugh, but it's an important point because part of the advantage of Linux is precisely the community. Microsoft has understood the importance of "community" in computing in Africa well and has been strategic in making donations which help to ensure their operating system is used. As a consequence MS software has a monopoly among institutional users. It's common for NGOs in Africa to use pirated software. Defeating the MS nag attacks on XP and Office is a distributed problem. Linux user groups in the developing world are needed if Linux really will take hold as I predict. That seems doable and a good thing to me.
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